47 vs Iran

47 really wanted to show off US military might through his parade but was disappointed. It was intentionally more low key and themed itself more historically educational and friendly than he'd hoped. Not surprising that if he can't impress in theory, he'll take it on himself to demonstrate his military capabilities in practice.

Cue joining Israel in bombing nuclear sites in Iran, regardless of every piece of advice he'd been given to avoid a potentially large scale long term conflict against a foreign power. So here we are: the oldest ever toddler playing with the most dangerous toy ever, and who can't wait to see things go boom.

Iran, of course, could take the volatile route of vengeance, threatening the USA with violence both in the Middle Eastern region and at home -- which they have already done. But if they were instead to entertain a more chill approach, here's what I'd suggest.

47's actions are reminiscent of a simple gangster play: hit the enemy hard once and they'll beg for peace and mercy on his terms. However, this is not one mafia family beating up one loan defaulter. It's a mafia don almost unilaterally declaring war on an entire mafia rival family. It's not USA vs Iran, it's really just 47 vs Iran. 47 does not have the support of half the voters who voted in the 2024 election, and some of his more powerful supporters are starting to voice their disapproval over this apparently impulsive decision.

With this as the background, it would not make sense to unite the entire USA against a common enemy which would happen if Iran proceeded to attack US citizens and materials either in the region or at home. Rather, a less costly strategy would be to use the Palestinian playbook and launch a propaganda war showing the hardships, the destruction, and the humanitarian crisis that has resulted from this US action, while at the same time suggesting that Iran's nuclear capabilities are as yet unaffected. Setting these two opposing cognitive forces loose in the USA right now would be a sit down with popcorn moment as we watch the Great Satan tear itself apart from within.

Honestly, at this time, the nation closer to regime change is the USA. Iran literally has to do nothing but wait it out. Will they, though? WWIII hangs in the balance.